There is an old saying: When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.  

Well, the diagnosis is worsening for some. Central Europeans bordering Ukraine, Belarus and Russia — are catching pneumonia.

In late April, I spent two weeks visiting Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. I met political thinkers, senior journalists, diplomats, academics, young people, and yes, a few politicians about changes in their countries’ relationships with the U.S. I met with people from the right to the moderate left. The trip was both exhilarating and deeply disturbing.

Exhilarating because of the remarkable development of their democracies and their economies since I was last there in the late 1980s.

Deeply disturbing as all (with the exception of a young Latvian who mouthed Russian talking points) expressed fear for their future. Not concern — fear.

In Poland, I talked with 14 individuals, all in positions of influence, as well as 20 students from the Warsaw School of Economics. They ranged from the chief editor of Poland’s most influential newspaper to an influential writer for a right-wing journal. 

I raised three issues with everybody:

1. Concern about the U.S. commitment to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which requires all signatory countries to come to the aid of any member attacked by a foe.
2. The effect of U.S. tariff policies on businesses.
3. The possibility that democratic countries of Europe can cobble together an effective military coalition in the event NATO is consigned to the dustbin of history. 

Issue 1: While I was in Poland, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that U.S. troops based in eastern Poland, providing logistical support to the military of Ukraine, would be redeployed to western Poland and possibly to Hungary — away from the hotspots.  

As recently as March 6 of this year, President Trump threw fog on the requirement of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, leaving smaller signers wondering if America would come to their aid.  

The U.S. currently spends about 3% of our GNP on our military, yet President Trump wants other NATO treaty signers to spend 5%. Poland spends 4.7% and has the third-largest modern military in the alliance. Its Baltic neighbors to the north all spend more than 3%. The president’s unclear support for NATO and his relationship with Vladimir Putin cause sleepless nights for leaders.

Issue 2: Our government’s chaotic tariff policy is a huge problem for businesses. For example, Polish manufacturers provide parts and technology to European customers. Businesses have put growth plans on hold.

A representative of an important American Chamber of Commerce in one of the small Baltic countries told me, “We do not export much to the USA, but we sell to our neighbors in Finland, Sweden and Poland. They have more to lose with high tariffs on direct sales to America, but we are seriously affected if their economies slow down.”   

Issue 3: Most people I met were concerned about NATO being replaced by a European Force. The main issues are:

1. Who will lead it?
2. What happens if the AfD (the extremist right-wing party in Germany) takes power in the next election?
3. Can it be ramped up quickly?

Until recently, north-central Europeans have considered the U.S. as their best friend, but attitudes are deteriorating rapidly. The highly respected pollster CBOS puts Polish citizens' attitude changes into real focus: In April 2023, 80% of Poles thought Polish-American relations were good. Yet as of last month, only 31% of Poles believe that the relationship is still good. In April 2023, 52% of Poles felt America's impact on the world was mainly positive. Now, 20% feel America's impact is mostly positive. When asked about their emotions about the Trump presidency, 60% say their main emotion is anxiety, 19% are mainly indifferent — only 14% express hope.

One of my later interviews with the CEO of the largest media company in one of the Baltic countries was chilling. He told me, with emphasis: “I am 51% absolutely convinced that the Russians will not invade us. But just in case I am wrong, my family and I have planned how they will quickly leave the country. I will stay with my staff to keep communicating with people here as long as we can.” 

Americans do not realize how crucial we have been to the stability of the planet for the last 80 years. I urge people to think about the coming years — what our foreign policy is becoming, who we are choosing as new friends, and how it affects those who have believed in us.

— Field Reichardt has significant international experience. He was an observer of the Polish election of 1989. He served as director of the Michigan International Office working to help Michigan companies in international markets, and to recruit foreign investment under Gov. John Engler. He is a resident of Grand Haven.

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