Marginal risk of severe weather, then cooler and clear. Get Bill Steffen's weekday forecast

Areas along and south of I-96 (generally south of a line from Montague to Detroit) will have a marginal risk (level 1) of a severe thunderstorm this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center says: “Lower Great Lakes Vicinity ... scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more limited with the northern extent, which may limit the severe threat. However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.”

This looks like the only chance we’ll have for severe weather this week.

Here’s the forecast rainfall over the next three days combined. Lots of rain down in Indiana … more rain for parts of the Southwest.

Here’s a closer view. Our rain will come this evening/tonight. We expect a touch under a quarter inch north of Grand Rapids and about half an inch south of I-94.

Today will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures inland reaching the mid 70s. It’ll be 10 degrees cooler near Lake Michigan (South Haven gets a high of 62. It’ll be another breezy day. Peak winds Sunday included 50 mph at the Ford Airport in Grand Rapids, 45 mph in Holland, 42 mph in East Gr. Rapids and 41 mph at Pentwater and Ionia.

The latest 8-14 Day Outlook calls for a continuation of our cool weather pattern into the middle of the month. I don’t see a general frost/freeze at this point, but with a cool trough hanging around the Great Lakes, we can expect some cool nights if and when we clear out at night.

5-day forecast

• Monday: Today is the one warm day, with a high of 74 degrees. We’ll continue Small Craft Advisories for Lake Michigan today. Winds will be southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts in the 30-35 range. Tonight, there's a decent chance of rain. Low of 46 degrees.
• Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cooler. High of 57 degrees. In the evening, expect cloudy skies and a low of 47 degrees.
• Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and cool, with a high of 55 degrees. Mostly cloudy in the evening with a low of 38 degrees.
• Thursday: Variable clouds, with a possible shower. High of 54 degrees. In the evening, a possible shower with a low of 36 degrees.
• Friday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 58 degrees. In the evening, expect a shower, with a low of 38 degrees.

— Check out Bill Steffen's Substack channel.